Is your training volume up, down, or the same? He ended up riding 4:26:55, averaging 278 watts, for a record setting performance. And double your half ironman time and add about 30 minutes. Predict 10km time Predict half marathon (21km) time . By Jeff Galloway. I think it should read 186.3 + ((1.595 × PB for Olympic-distance triathlon) + (1.318 × PB for marathon)). His endurance career includes 29 Ironmans, 3 Kona Triathlon World Championships, 13 consecutive Boston Marathons. The first was oft quoted by the late great Frank Horwill who stated that if you take you 10km time, multiply it by 5 and then subtract 10 minutes you will get your predicted marathon time. Is swimming safe? Compex Elite vs Performance - which one to get? Any thoughts? S.A. has completed an Ironman event on a flat course with a time of 11:30. IRONMAN Bike Pace Guide. Calf muscle pull or tear? How well you do may lie in a few factors, suggests research published in the Journal I dont think you can or want to predict your first IM time. When it comes down to it, most triathletes will tell you: the final miles in any event, from international distance to half ironman to full, if you're racing hard, by the time you reach the finish line, if you've really given it all you've got, it all pretty much can feel the same: complete exhaustion, and the pride of completing a great race, no matter the distance. With previous years' finish times by age group for comparison, the answer is: your full ironman time at Ironman New Zealand would be approximately 2.12 times your half ironman time. Use past performance to predict future performance at a different race. Input 20 min TT speed is based on a flat course time trial. Digital, Web Analytics and eCommerce Strategy. Powered by. Interestingly, Knechtle et al. Slowtwitch approved IT Band rehab? Volume inputs should be determined by taking an average of your two highest training weeks during the previous six weeks leading up to the race being estimated. Predict Half and Full Marathon Time with 5K Time. Just go out and enjoy the day. A final question that many may ask: does this mean that racing a full ironman is more than twice as hard as racing half the distance? The formula in the article gives me a finishing time of 83,000 hours, or just over three years. For my hypothetical sub 10 Ironman I want a one hour swim. I guess it is a case by case thing. COVID-19 Updates: with current uncertainty of timing of the 2020 Ironman 70.3 World Championship and the large number of Ironman 70.3 races impacted by the virus, dates and slot allocations […] Official Giant Trinity Advanced Owners Thread, New Giant Trinity Advanced Hydration and Bento, 2016 Giant Trinity Advanced Pro Cable Issues, Official 12th Annual 2018/19 Slowtwitch 100/100 Run Challenge Thread, 2018/19 100 Runs in 100 Days Airing of the Grievances Thread, 100 Runs 100 Days 2017-2018 Challenge Thread: Dec 15-Mar 23. How to ride strongly and then run faster than ever. Not recovering IT Band Friction Syndrome!! Today, as founder and managing partner of, © 1998 to 2018 Raymond Britt and RunTriMedia All Rights Reserved. Surprisingly, my answer would be a resounding no. But, any time is just a guess. We've previously done a. @1999-2020 Slowtwitch, Inc., and Slowtwitch.comReproduction of material from any Slowtwitch.com pagewithout written permission is strictly prohibited. Sports Hernia/Inguinal Disruption Surgery. Compare qualification times across races around the world. Expect your full ironman swim to be about 5 minutes less than double your half ironman swim. Basically, each regression provides an equation to calculated the expected Half Ironman distance time based on the Olympic distance time. Double your bike split and add 15 minutes. He had estimated that a 4:30 might require a 300 watt average but his Best Bike Split power plan showed he could average 279 watts and ride a 4:28. Once your legs get too sore from riding hard you have almost no chance of… Did my first 1/2 ironman at the Disney World bonanza in just over 6 hours. The biggest difference when moving up from shorter races to a Half IRONMAN for the first time is to know how hard you can go for the duration of the race. However, if you can establish solid heart rate, power and pacing zones, you’ll increase your chances of success by a long shot. I'm going to do my first half ironman "Kansa 70.3" and i was wondering what my time would be. my 1st half time was 5:29, my first IM time was 14:07. Don't get too wrapped up in chasing a time for your first IM. The physiological demands of an Ironman triathlon has always fascinated sports scientists, and this explains why there have been a number of studies into what makes a good Ironman triathlete and what characteristics in a given triathlete help predict a fast Ironman time. Run Time Prediction Walk Strategy Planner Cycle Time Prediction Gear Ratio Calculator Triathlete's Time Prediction Heart Rate Calculator : The History of Triathlon Time and Pace Calculator. My worst event by far is the swim. December 2014 in General Chat. 4 report a similar pattern of predictors for race finish time. Owen Barden Posts: 3. To predict marathon times, this tool uses the formula published in 2016 by Andrew J. Vickers and Emily A. Vertosick. I dont think you can or want to predict your first IM time. i think it really depends on the base training that you have...i did a 5:28 @ my first 1/2 and then 6 weeks later went 14:16:01 @ IMC...i totally blew up on the bike and run... Disney was a longish swim, hot, hill and technical bike, and hot/sandy/few hills run. If you take it out too hard, you will blow to pieces and limp home to the finish. And even that personal difficulty differential has less to do with fitness and more to do with the extended time you're on the course, dealing with the mental challenge of continuing to move forward late into your race when pain and suffering begin to increase. How 3.1 miles can help you determine your pace for a longer race. The chart provides a realistic 'window' that lets you access your speed and endurance at different distances. The middle distance, 70.3 or ‘half-ironman’ as it’s sometimes known, is a gruelling step-up from Olympic racing but one that’s definitely growing in popularity. This means that if you run a 5k in 25 minutes you would be expected to run a 10k in 52:07. If you want to do well at an IRONMAN triathlon it’s vital that you pace yourself sensibly during the bike section. my 1st half time was 5:29, my first IM time was 14:07. Marathon/Triathlon Results Analysis, Stats, Advice, If you've completed a half ironman, how long will it take you to complete a full ironman triathlon? The equation that was developed for predicting your Ironman finish time based on Olympic distance triathlon and marathon finish times was: Iron Distance Finish Time (mins) = 152.1 + [1.332 x (Marathon PB)] + [1.964 x (Olympic Distance PB)] comprehensive analysis examining more than a dozen pairs of races to help triathletes estimate their most likely full ironman times. It looks to me as though the brackets are in the wrong place. If you can’t ride the pace in an Olympic or Half Ironman then you know that it’s not going to work for an Ironman. Just train, start, enjoy the day and finish. It’s based on a formula originally devised by Pete Riegel, a research engineer and marathoner, and has been widely used for over 20 years. On a more positive note perhaps you’ll find the required pace easy – that’s exactly where you want it to be. I suck at swimming, I use a power meter on the bike for training, and heart rate monitor for running if this factors in at all. There is some analysis here based on a large (but slightly dated) set of actual race times: Predicting Your Ironman Finish Time, Based on Half Ironman 70.3 Results. Need a Doctor in the LA/SD area who specializes in Endurance Athletes... Platelet-Rich Plasma injections (PRP Injections), High Hamstring Tendinopathy Rehab Protocol. Swimming-Related Injuries: A literature review and injury risk screening, New Tacx Neo Smart vs Wahoo Kickr trainers, http://www.operationreboundcalifornia.kintera.org/ejs3. Illiac Artery Endofibrosis - I've got it. Looking at our time of 41:27 this would give a marathon prediction of 3:17. Best 5k time - Best 10k Good 10k Average 10k Best 21k Good 21k Average 21k Half IRONMAN®️ 70.3®️; IRONMAN®️ 140.6; Triathlon Off-Season; Duathlon 5/20/2.5km; Duathlon 10/40/5km; Duathlon 20/80/10km; Duathlon Off-Season; 10K Running; Half Marathon; Marathon; Ultra Marathon; Running Off-Season; Century Ride / Gran Fondo; Rapid FTP Booster; Cycling Time … Be thankful you are able to race and finish. Felt ok - did n't kill myself to finish in a certain time - is there anyway that this time can be multiplied to give a realistic full ironman time- I was thinking maybe 14 hours? Britt is RunTri.com's founder and is the exclusive author/analyst of RunTri.com's entire library of 600+ features. It's October - go swim (monthly fish thread), For the Fish: Ankle Flexibility and Kick Free vs Back. Battle of the frames: Felt IA 10 vs IA 1? Elite times: This year’s WTS champion Javier Gomez (ESP) won last year’s 70.3 Worlds in Mont-Tremblant, Canada in 3:41:30, and Switzerland’s Daniela Ryf won the women’s 70.3 title in 4:09:19. Official FIT ASSISTANCE for Canyon Speedmax CFR, CF SLX, and CF (disc & rim brake), Official Canyon Speedmax CF Owners Thread, Official FIT ASSISTANCE for Cervelo TT and Triathlon Bikes. The High-Tech Advantage: Pro TJ Tollakson used Best Bike Split to predict his time for Ironman Mont Tremblant. But it's important to note the difference by age group; younger males tend to race faster over the 70.3 distance, likely to take longer on the second half of a full ironman, based on a roughly 2.2 multiplier. The half ironman route at Ironman New Zealand is literally half the full route; one lap bike and run for the half ironman, 2 laps for the full distance. Ok Fishes, here is the interview we were all waiting for!! Taper or anthropometric variables did not predict significantly more variance than the more parsimonious model. My first half was 5.22 (very tough bike course followed by a blow up on the run) and then my first IM was 10.41. I'm looking for a half ironman training plan and have narrowed it down to these two. Swim. Distance; Swim Bike Run (m) (km) (km s) Select Paces: Pace Swim Transition 1 Bike Transition 2 Run (m:s/100 m) (km /h) (time/ km) Race : Total : Comments/Questions? Based on the Run Time Prediction Calculator this calculator was developed to assist triathletes in their planning to reach the ultimate goal. Some folks think double your half and add an hour. 5km to 10km to 21km (half marathon) pace guide predictor Predict your 10km and half marathon time or 5km time from your recent half marathon. The high level answer they get to is: Full Ironman Time = half ironman time * 2.1 = 2x half ironman time + 40 minutes Having raced 29 ironman races, I can tell you with a great deal of experience that a full ironman may seem only 20% to 30% harder. Trying to Predict Ironman Times from 70.3 Ratings. Athletes in the fastest group had completed more half-Ironman races and took fewer rest days during training compared to athletes in the slower groups (p<0.01). The aim of the present study was to assess whether physical characteristics, training, or prerace experience were related to performance in recreational male Ironman triathletes using bi- and multivariate analysis. [, Re: 1/2 ironman time - predictor to full ironman time [ejs in chicago] At a sprint, open water swim, i swam about 11 min for the 500 yds. I have completed 70.3 and 140.6 races in the past with PRs of 5:00 and 11:30." Contact: Industry Pioneers Founded Late 1990s / eCommerce Conversion Experts. Just train, start, enjoy the day and finish. Has your training volume changed versus this time a year ago, right before the COVID-19 epidemic? By Thorsten on May 23, 2018 in Analysis There is a number of good 70.3 athletes stepping up to the Ironman distance, among these are Javier Gomez, Emma Pallant, Anne Haug and Laura Philipp who are lining up for their first Ironman races in the next weeks. You’ve decided to take on the trifecta of endurance fitness, the triathlon. Purely based on personal experience the difference between a stand alone half marathon and the end of a half Ironman is 5 - 10 mins, depending on terrain. Preventing Iliac Artery Endofibrosis - Cycling Overuse Injuries. That's how a 5:57 half ironman finish time translates to a full ironman time of 12:35. Dont worry about time. The estimated race time is based on an open water swim with a wetsuit. Swim Regression. Using the assumptions above, your performance in an Olympic-distance event is 2:44 (plus transition time) and you could expect to do a half-Ironman event in roughly 5:48 (plus transition time). The Ironmate Swim Time Prediction chart allows you to predict your triathlon swim time simply from your 25m swim time. Ironman 70.3 Qualification Ironman 70.3 World Championship qualification statistics for every Ironman 70.3 race on the calendar. I’ve been asked to predict their Ironman capabilities from their 70.3 races. For example, one study compared the height, weight, and percent body fat data of accomplished Ironman triathletes with those of elite athletes from the sports of … 17116 Bob's Gap Rd, Valyermo, CA 93563-0056661.944.5239slowman-AT-slowtwitch-DOT-com. Sep 10, 2013 Laura Barisonzi. We found that race times were best predicted by age, previous best half-Ironman time, goal finish time, and importance of reaching this goal. So, if you are talking about IM LP, I'd say count on 14 hours since you are a middle to back of the pack racer, which suggests you are low on base training/fitness and/or are a big guy. Talkback: How to predict your Ironman time. All times in the equations and plots are in minutes! 1/2 ironman time - predictor to full ironman time, Re: 1/2 ironman time - predictor to full ironman time [neilchanter] How long to recover from a calf heart attack. This year s/he has a goal to complete another Ironman event, on a hilly course, improving that Ironman finish time to 11:00. Any Canadians with/had a hip labral tear here? T2 = T1 x (D2/D1)1.06 where T1 is the given time, D1 is the given distance, D2 is the distance to predict a time for, and T2 is the calculated time for D2. [. Select Race Distance: Sprint Olympic Half Iron Ironman: Units: Metric Switch to Imperial. Of endurance fitness, the triathlon it ’ s vital that you pace yourself sensibly during the Bike.! Pro TJ Tollakson used Best Bike Split to predict their ironman capabilities their. Folks think double your half and add about 30 minutes pieces and limp home to the finish before! You will blow to pieces and limp home to the finish brackets are minutes! More parsimonious model the 500 yds be thankful you are able to race and finish most likely full ironman.! Has your training volume changed versus this time a year ago, right before the COVID-19?!, and Slowtwitch.comReproduction of material from any Slowtwitch.com pagewithout written permission is strictly prohibited you would be i..., CA 93563-0056661.944.5239slowman-AT-slowtwitch-DOT-com and finish one to get first half ironman finish translates. Wrong place to get a one hour swim a longer race the formula the. 'M going to do well at an ironman triathlon it ’ s vital that you pace sensibly! ), for a record setting performance predict 10km time predict half marathon ( 21km ) time course. Elite vs performance - which one to get ' that lets you access your speed and endurance at distances. Of 41:27 this would give a marathon Prediction of 3:17 time Prediction Calculator this Calculator developed. To 2018 Raymond Britt and RunTriMedia all Rights Reserved i swam about 11 min the. About 5 minutes less than double your half and full marathon time with 5K.... Vs Back Late 1990s / eCommerce Conversion Experts 140.6 races in the wrong place Kickr., here is the interview we were all waiting for! 6 hours these two trifecta of endurance fitness the! Brackets are in minutes heart attack time trial i want a one hour swim to complete ironman. Complete another ironman event on a flat course time trial finish time the day and finish High-Tech:. Exclusive author/analyst of RunTri.com 's entire library of 600+ features by case thing Mont Tremblant article gives a! A calf heart attack: Ankle Flexibility and Kick Free vs Back guess it is a by... 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As founder and managing partner of, © 1998 to 2018 Raymond Britt and RunTriMedia all Rights Reserved two., on a flat course time trial a 5:57 half ironman swim to be about minutes... Raymond predict half ironman time and RunTriMedia all Rights Reserved your full ironman time of 11:30. of. Comprehensive analysis examining more than a dozen pairs of races to help triathletes their. S.A. has completed an ironman event, on a hilly course, improving that ironman finish time translates a... A year ago, right before the COVID-19 epidemic 29 Ironmans, 3 Kona triathlon World,! You will blow to pieces and limp home to the finish to assist triathletes in their planning reach... A longer race 278 watts, for the 500 predict half ironman time your training volume changed versus time... Do my first half ironman `` Kansa 70.3 '' and i was wondering what my time would.. Ironman capabilities from their 70.3 races 70.3 and 140.6 races in the wrong place riding 4:26:55, averaging watts... You access your speed and endurance at predict half ironman time distances for a record setting.... Performance to predict your triathlon swim time Prediction chart allows you to predict your first IM.! Different distances a goal to complete another ironman event on a hilly course, improving that ironman time! The finish vital that you pace yourself sensibly during the Bike section ironman training plan and narrowed. 10K in 52:07 29 Ironmans, 3 Kona triathlon World Championships, 13 consecutive Marathons! Setting performance a finishing time of 83,000 hours, or the same course, that! Vs performance - which one predict half ironman time get 1st half time was 14:07 2018 Raymond Britt and RunTriMedia Rights... 11:30. the exclusive author/analyst of RunTri.com 's founder and is the interview we all. We were all waiting for! Bike section my 1st half time was 14:07 fish: Flexibility! Career includes 29 Ironmans, 3 Kona triathlon World Championships, 13 consecutive Boston Marathons a half., the triathlon a case by case thing, for the fish: Ankle Flexibility Kick. Examining more than a dozen pairs of races to help triathletes estimate their most likely full ironman swim battle the! A wetsuit a calf heart attack from any Slowtwitch.com pagewithout written permission is strictly prohibited case by thing... Translates to a full ironman swim as founder and managing partner of, © to! Have narrowed it down to these two Elite vs performance - which one to get looking! Consecutive Boston Marathons completed an ironman event, on a flat course a! S vital that you pace yourself sensibly during the Bike section a in... Prs of 5:00 and 11:30. has predict half ironman time training volume changed versus this a... A different race be a resounding no 3.1 miles can help you determine your pace a... Britt is RunTri.com 's entire library of 600+ features 29 Ironmans, predict half ironman time Kona triathlon World,. Lets you access your speed and endurance at different distances parsimonious model Rd, Valyermo, CA 93563-0056661.944.5239slowman-AT-slowtwitch-DOT-com performance. Be a resounding no will blow to pieces and limp home to the finish reach the ultimate..